MLB underdog betting lessons can be applied on court and ice

LAS VEGAS — Last weekend was a nice appetizer for sports bettors with the start of the pandemic-shortened MLB season, but we’ll be gorging ourselves this weekend on an all-you-can-bet buffet of sports as the NBA and NHL restart their 2019-20 campaigns.

From all reports, it appears the “winter sports” (which are used to being confined indoors) have done a better job with their “bubble” approach in Orlando for the NBA and Toronto and Edmonton for the NHL (and the WNBA’s “wubble” in Bradenton, Fla.) than the open-door policy of MLB. But despite the things MLB has done wrong, bettors still can learn from what happened in its opening week.

For starters, home-field advantage doesn’t matter as much without fans in the stands. It’s a short sample, but MLB road teams were actually ahead 43-40 straight-up through Wednesday night. Now, there are no “home” teams in the NBA and NHL restarts (except the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs, but we’ll get to that later), however, it reinforces my belief that playing in empty stadiums and arenas balances the playing field.

Granted, MLB favorites started 14-2 on last Thursday and Friday’s opening days with the aces on the mound, but underdogs actually won more than 50 percent of the games on Saturday (9-5) and Sunday (8-6) and have continued to pull more surprising upsets, including the Red Sox +179 over the Mets and the Mariners +230 over the Angels on Wednesday.

As we continue to bet MLB this weekend, I’m looking for live underdogs, and with the lack of home-field advantage, I’m more emboldened to jump on road ’dogs and will be checking on odds for the Mets at the Braves, Indians at Twins, Pirates at Cubs and Rangers at Giants. The Braves aren’t that much better, but the Mets should be getting plus-money versus the defending division champs, same with the Indians against the Twins. As for Pirates-Cubs, throw the whole NL Central in a blender and take the ’dogs. The Giants already have three wins as underdogs of +200 or more, but I wouldn’t trust them if thrown into the favorite’s role.

Don’t tell anyone, but I will occasionally bet a chalk parlay, and this lack of home-field advantage does flip more value to betting road favorites. The ones I’m eyeing this weekend would be Reds at Tigers, Rays at Orioles, Astros at Angels and Padres at Rockies (though hopefully we can get Padres as ’dogs with the Rockies’ 4-1 start).

These same handicapping principles apply with the NBA restart. The court has been leveled by the neutral site and long layoff, so I expect ’dogs to be barking this opening weekend especially against unmotivated favorites waiting for the playoffs. Also note WNBA ’dogs went 4-2 ATS with three outright upsets last weekend.

In the NBA on Friday, a lot of people are high on the Blazers to sneak into the Western Conference playoffs and I guess that’s why they’re favored in the reopener versus Memphis, but I’ll take Ja Morant and the Grizzlies +2 to strengthen their hold on the No. 8 seed. I’ll also take the Celtics +5 against the Bucks as I do expect the Bucks to be playing out the string and this game means more to the Celtics, who have been great underdogs under coach Brad Stevens (20-8 ATS in last 28 as ’dog).

Saturday, the 76ers are getting a lot of love as they’re healthier after the layoff, but I’ll take the Pacers +6 as that’s too many points for two teams that are tied for the East’s No. 5 seed (and thus should be closer to pick ’em). I also like the Raptors +4 vs. the Lakers as I also expect LA will be going through the motions while the Raptors are still trying to prove they can win without Kawhi Leonard.

In the start of the NHL’s best-of-five qualifying rounds on Saturday, a lot of people seem to be jumping on the Oilers with home-ice advantage in Edmonton, but I’m taking the Blackhawks +150 in the series and in Saturday’s Game 1 if I can get +135 or better. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach on the other series as the No. 1 factor in handicapping hockey is to find the hot goalie(for those who think that’s old-fashioned, just look at the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues with Jordan Binnington).

If you’re looking for a future bet, I’m on record with my homer pick of the Golden Knights (around 6/1 to 7/1) to win the Stanley Cup. Vegas added goalie Robin Lehner from the Blackhawks to go with aging-but-still-capable Marc-Andre Fleury. That certainly makes it dangerous with coach Peter DeBoer being able to go with the hot hand.

For those who remember our great run last year with 1st Period Over/Under bets, you’ll recall they continued for the first week of the playoffs before the ATM ran dry. I do believe we’ll see wide-open shootouts with plenty of goals early and often, but I’m going to be doing some round-robin parlays like I did last year, but on a smaller scale until my speculation is confirmed. Good luck with this weekend’s betting menu. And, as always in life, leave room for dessert.