Finding betting edges in these two NBA openers

The NBA has returned and there’s plenty to handicap. Two games in particular this weekend have lots of intrigue with line moves, additions to lineups and matchup problems that will surely work against certain teams. In some cases, it might lead to value for bettors to pounce on.

Friday: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 222¹/₂ total)

This could be by far the most meaningful game in the first three days in the bubble. By means of winning percentage, Portland has an edge in the standings over New Orleans and Sacramento in the race for the final seed in the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers sit 3¹/₂ games behind Memphis in the West, and a win would go a long way toward forcing a play-in with the Grizzlies.

However, this matchup is fascinating for many reasons besides the playoff implications. Portland is seemingly at full strength with Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back in the fold after recovering from injury. Portland ranked 27th in defensive rebounding as well as defensive efficiency, and Nurkic should immediately improve the Blazers’ issues on the glass, which led opponents to average a league-worst 15.5 second-chance points per game.

Adding to the intrigue, Taylor Jenkins, a longtime Mike Budenholzer disciple, has done a great job implementing the Bucks’ defensive principles in Memphis. Those philosophies emphasize rim protection and allow opponents to take more 3-point attempts.

Why does this matter? Portland is one of the worst offenses at the rim in the NBA. In short, how Portland plays offense is how Memphis wants its opponents to play. There’s also the aspect of Nurkic returning after missing over a year with one of the most gruesome leg injuries we’ve seen. How effective can he be? Is the market overvaluing Portland based on the additions of Nurkic and Collins?

Saturday: Philadelphia 76ers (-6, 211¹/₂ total) vs. Indiana Pacers

Indiana was dealt a serious blow last week when second-leading scorer Domantas Sabonis left the bubble with a foot injury that will keep him off the floor for the rest of the season. Combined with uncertainty over whether Victor Oladipo will play, all of this noise has led to the market moving this line two points in Philadelphia’s favor.

Should the 76ers be laying six points, though? Out of desperation and necessity, coach Brett Brown has changed his starting lineup. Shake Milton enters, and Ben Simmons will be shifting to power forward. This lineup has not played a single minute together this season, and Simmons has not seen a second at power forward.

With Milton on the floor this season, the 76ers have seen their shooting percentage at the rim jump by 5.7 percent and their 3-point shooting increase by 1.4 percent. These are positive signs for Philadelphia, but it does not change the fact that the team will be breaking in a new unit Saturday. Joel Embiid’s calf also is an issue. Should bettors be confident in laying an inflated number with a team like Philadelphia?